There are a number of stages which incursions go through.
We refer to an active incursion constellation as a “focus” colloquially.
When an incursion spawns, it starts with 100% Sansha influence and the constellation effects are 100% applied, they include a reduction in ship resists, reduction in DPS, reduction in CONCORD bounties and constellation wide cyno-jamming.
We have to grind down the influence to 0% in order to run efficiently. Influence is reduced at the following rates:
In general, VGs are the most efficient method of grinding influence due to the quick site times even during influence. They can also be formed quickly since less pilots need to have moved.
Despite this, we usually grind our influence through HQ sites, we refit into higher tank fits and use higher numbers of logi. We also try to avoid TCRCs until we are below roughly 50-60% due to the more stressful situation it brings upon logi, mostly since our battleships add buffer rather than more resistance for influence.
From its spawn time, the incursion will stay in the Established phase for a random duration between 1-5 days (24-120 Hours).
NOTE: As soon as the incursion reaches 0% influence, the Kundalini Manifest site will spawn. This site will instantly end the incursion if successfully completed. We want to avoid killing it for as long as possible so that we can farm the incursion sites for the delicious ISK.
This is the next stage of the incursion, no actual changes are seen, but it gives us a warning and a definite timeframe for how long the incursion will last.
The incursion will remain in the “Mobilizing” state for exactly 48 hours, with a deviation of a few minutes for the actual change to be seen in-game.
This is the final stage, after the Mobilizing state finishes the Incursion enters the “Withdrawing” state. This is the normal state in which we will kill the Kundalini Manifest and end the incursion.
If the Kundalini is not completed within the timeframe, the incursion will despawn without paying out the LP earned during the incursion. Thus it is imperative that the site be completed within this stage.
Once an incursion is ended either by completing the Kundalini or by allowing the Withdrawing stage to last for 24 hours, a respawn timer is started of between 12-36 hours, within this timeframe, a new HighSec incursion will spawn.
There should always be exactly 3 HighSec incursions, if there are less than 3 then there is a spawn due at some point soon
By putting together the times above, you can see that an incursion will last for a minimum of 3-7 days provided there is not a premature Kundalini kill (commonly referred to as a “rage pop”, generally occurs when a community gets angry due to contest losses and decides to ruin things for everyone).
The Kundalini will usually be completed within 12 hours of entering the Withdrawing status, therefore it is usually 3.5-7.5 days per incursion. The 4 day deviation is determined randomly by a CCP algorithm.